This piece is for entertainment purposes only. I don’t know whether Donna Edwards intends to stay in or get out. So use the following with great care.
One candidate has $3.75 million, the other has $419,000. The first candidate has a great fundraising track record, having run the DCCC for two cycles. The second candidate had $30,000 in the bank at the outset of this race, and a reputation as not being a great fundraiser. Her strategy was to stay close enough to bring third party money from EMILY’s List and other IE groups to bear at the end. But it’s not close, and you have to figure that the IE groups will not be enthused about throwing major money at a candidate who if things continue as they are will be outgunned by $7-8 million or more come Election Day.
Given the numbers to date, there’s not a lot of evidence to suggest that Edwards can turn this around. The smart money will continue to flow to Van Hollen, and with it endorsements and support from elected officials and local community leaders. Everyone wants to support a winner, and increasingly that’s how he’s being perceived.
Let’s assume she doesn’t stay in. Two questions. Who if anyone gets in? And what happens if Edwards decides to drop back into the CD4 contest?
Who gets in the Senate race? Several possibilities. The Van Hollen nightmare scenario is Elijah Cummings. Well respected, well known, polls well all around the state. He would be formidable. But several factors mitigate against him getting in. One: Baltimore. Cummings was at the forefront of the response to the unrest following the death of Freddie Gray. Running for Senate will take away his ability to focus as heavily on his hometown.
Two: money. Like Edwards, Cummings is not a prolific fundraiser. To build on his natural support as a respected veteran lawmaker, he’d have to lock himself in that room for several hours every day for many months. Is that what he wants?
Three: my sense is that there’s a lot of respect between Cummings and Van Hollen. Every politician thinks he or she is the best choice for any race. But does Cummings loathe the idea of Senator Van Hollen enough to motivate him to gear up the effort needed to beat the clear front runner?
Four: Cummings is the ranking member of an important committee, having spoken out on several efforts by the GOP to investigate Democrats with a political angle, such as Benghazi. Will he want to give up that position to be a freshman senator?
I remain skeptical that Cummings will run. But he might. And he will be a major threat if he does.
Who else? This blog’s own white whale, John Delaney, is always a possibility to open up that checkbook and mount a self-funded campaign. The conventional wisdom is that he wants to be governor in 2018. But a challenge to Van Hollen from the right can’t be ruled out in 2016. Bonus: if Delaney abandons his CD6 seat, we will get the fun prospect of all hell being unleashed in the campaign to succeed him. Last time I looks, I had about 8-10 names on a list of prospective candidates for that race. Moving it from 2018 to 2016 will only increase the chaos.
If Cummings stays out, Dutch Ruppersberger could get in. Everything I hear right now is that Dutch is deferring to Cummings. If Cummings runs, Dutch won’t. And word is that Ruppersberger would rather be governor than senator.
More remote possibility: John Sarbanes. I think he’s committed to waiting for the next chance, but him reconsidering can’t be ruled out for 2016.
My rank guess is that everything turns on Cummings. If he runs, there’s a real race. If he doesn’t, it’s possible that nobody serious steps up and Van Holllen wins in a walk. Delaney will be sorely tempted, and it’s anyone’s guess what he does. Ruppersberger and Sarbanes remain outside possibilities. Expect all this to be clearer by the end of the third quarter.
Final point: Edwards is in a bind no matter what. I can’t see a path forward to victory in the Senate race, but there’s not exactly a comfortable landing pad in CD4, either. Glenn Ivey has almost as much cash on hand as Donna does, and Joseline Pena-Melnyk has dug in tenaciously as well. I can’t see either one conceding that race back to the incumbent without a fight. Harder to figure what Dereck Davis or Ingrid Turner will do in that scenario, but I believe Donna Edwards is in for a fight whichever way she chooses to go.
Maryland Scramble 