CD4 candidate Ingrid Turner filed her FEC report this afternoon. Not pretty. She raised $15K, spent $25K, and repaid herself $100K of the original loan of $220K. COH balance is $135K, with $100K being outstanding loan balance. Logical conclusion is that she thought better of dropping all that money on her campaign.
Ingrid Turner
EXCLUSIVE: CD4 Fundraising Analysis
Attached is another side by side topline analysis of the filed and reported congressional candidates, this time for CD4. UPDATE: The Brown report is now available online, and I have updated the numbers to reflect this. The differences are minimal.
Some comments below. Overall, I don’t know that I would call anyone in this race a big winner. There are questions for everyone. This is shaping up as something of a free for all. From the top:
Glenn Ivey: it’s good to be first, no question, so a pat on the back for that. On the other hand, he raised $117,000 in two weeks in March, so $275,000 as a follow up is good, but not great. Is he slowing down? He’s very top heavy with money from the legal profession (nothing wrong with that, of course) but can he break out and broaden the base in the third quarter?
Ingrid Turner: she’s not really second, she’s actually fifth, if you discount the loan money, but it does show a lot of commitment to drop $220K in right off the bat. But she has demonstrated very little fundraising prowess, and even at $40K, $2700 of that is a contribution from herself. She either has to step up the fundraising or pony up more money. Most of those I’ve spoken to about her situation think she went all in this time, so it’s time to hit the phones.
Joseline Pena-Melnyk: I’m biased, I gave to her, but I honestly think she’s in very good position. She has more cash on hand than the former lieutenant governor and a sitting committee chair. Only Glenn Ivey has demonstrated more fundraising clout than she has. Other factors: nobody works harder than Joseline, she’s by far the most progressive of the candidates, and if she continues to show solid fundraising numbers in Q3, rumblings are that national progressive groups will be looking hard at throwing significant IE money her way.
Dereck Davis: Yes, he got started later than everyone else. Yes, I have no doubt that he can raise a lot of money. But he didn’t. If he was going to wait until late May to crank it up, he should have put up a better number than this (see Matthews, Kathleen over in CD8). I know he can do better and raise more, but this was a missed opportunity for him. And his report reads like a who’s who of the lobbying and business communities: max contributions from Bruce Bereano and Gerry Evans, for starters. Can he raise his game on the numbers? Can he broaden his base and show more support from actual people? I’d bet on yes, at least as to the dollars.
Anthony Brown: the COH numbers, when put in a table, don’t look THAT bad. He’s only about $30-40K behind Pena-Melnyk and Davis. Even Ivey is only $180K ahead. But coming off the disastrous 2014 general election results, I don’t get any sense that there’s a fundraising rally lurking in the shadows for Brown. His name recognition is high (eight years in the legislature, followed by eight years as LG, will do that), but every other indicator is awful. Unless he can turn around perceptions and energize his campaign, things don’t look good here.
Warren Christopher: he’s put in $70K of his own money. Like Ingrid Turner, give him props for throwing down a wad of cash. Raising $23K, however, is not so good.
Lisa Ransom: the numbers pretty much speak for themselves.
Two other candidates were rumored to be running. Terence Strait filed for candidacy, but has not filed a fundraising report. Alvin Thornton has done neither. Not sure where they’d fit into this race, which already has four very viable candidates (five if Ingrid Turner can raise some money, which remains to be seen).
Right now, my take is this: in order, it’s Ivey, Pena-Melnyk, Davis and Brown. Up arrow for Pena-Melnyk, down arrow for Brown, holding steady for Ivey and Davis. I’ll withhold judgment on Ingrid Turner until the next reporting period.
Ingrid Turner $263K*
* But $220,000 is a loan from the candidate.
Actual money raised: around $40,000. Again, more later.
Source: Baltimore Sun
State Contributions
As promised, I have compiled a chart of the state level political contributions made by each candidate for Senate, CD4 and CD8. Only donations by individuals are counted here. It doesn’t purport to be an exact science – elected officials like Chris Van Hollen have donated large quantities of money through the DCCC, PACs and slates, but I didn’t want to make the work any harder for my diligent research assistant (or me, for that matter) so I drew an arbitrary line at individual contributions.
I also decided to take out candidate contributions or loans to their own campaigns. Just contributions.
Also note that the state database only goes back to 1999. Contributions prior to that date will not show up on this search.
Here’s the summary.
Senate
Donna Edwards: 22 contributions, $3,260, average $148 (Largest: Equality Maryland PAC, Anthony Brown (2006), 500 each)
Chris Van Hollen: None
CD4
Anthony Brown: 1 contribution, $1,000 (Charles County Democratic Central Committee)
Warren Christopher: 5 contributions, $4,620, average $924 (Largest: Victor Ramirez $4,000)
Dereck Davis: None
Glenn Ivey: 2 contributions, $55, average $28 (Largest: Rushern Baker $30)
Joseline Pena-Melnyk: 17 contributions, $3,070, average $181 (Largest: Jim Rosapepe $1,000)
Alvin Thornton: 2 contributions, $200, average $100 (Largest: Dennis Smith and Kenneth Johnson, $100 each)
Ingrid Turner: 6 contributions, $2,085, average $347 (Largest: Alonzo Washington, $1000)
CD8
Kumar Barve: 1 contribution, $100 (Largest: Samuel Epps, $100)
Valerie Ervin: 13 contributions, $3,040, average $198 (Largest: 2 contributions of $1,000 each to State Democratic Central Committee)
Ana Sol Gutierrez: 8 contributions, $1,474, average $184 (Largest: $550 to Rich Madaleno)
Will Jawando: 5 contributions, $338, $68 average (Largest: $150 to Ken Ulman)
Kathleen Matthews: 1 contribution, $1,000 (Largest: $1,000 to Doug Duncan)
Jamie Raskin: 30 contributions, $5,780, $193 average (Largest: $500 each to Anthony Muse, Jim Mathias, Catherine Pugh, Equality Maryland PAC and Doug Gansler)
Detailed lists are attached for each race.
Hot Sheet
For those of us playing the home version of the game, things have gotten messy. So being spring, it’s time for a clean start with a fresh new scoresheet.
Senate:
Declared and Running: Donna Edwards, Chris Van Hollen
Still Thinking About It: Elijah Cummings
Finally Actually Thinking About It: Dutch Ruppersberger
Probably Not This Time: John Sarbanes
Likes To Torture Bloggers With Conflicting Signals, But Also Likely Not Running: John Delaney
CD4:
In: Anthony Brown, Dereck Davis*, Glenn Ivey, Joseline Pena-Melnyk, Ingrid Turner*
Mulling It Over: Jay Walker
Rumored: Anthony Muse, Kris Valderrama
* Declared as candidates, but have yet to file with the FEC
CD8:
Off to the Races: Kumar Barve, Ana Sol Gutierrez, Will Jawando, Jamie Raskin
Likely: Valerie Ervin, Kathleen Matthews
Still in the Conversation: Ariana Kelly, Susan Lee, Jeff Waldstreicher
Summary of the Races
The Diamondback, the UMCP paper of record, has a nice summary out today of the state of the various election contests.
In the seven weeks since Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Maryland) announced her retirement, a wave of political frenzy has unfolded, with several state politicians announcing their intentions to run for Congress.
Go read it.
One teensy little bone to pick with reporter Jon Banister. Dude, next time call the “political frenzy” a “scramble,” OK? But either way, it’s a hell of a lot better reporting than the big shots downtown are doing lately.
CD4 Fundraising
While only two candidates have filed statements of organization with the FEC in CD8, there is much more to discuss in neighboring CD4. Four candidates have filed with the FEC, and three of them did so before April 1, so they will be filing contribution reports this week, as they are due by Wednesday, April 15. The first to file was Joseline Pena-Melnyk, who filed on March 17. Coincidentally, both Glenn Ivey and Anthony Brown filed on March 24. Former Prince George’s Councilmember Ingrid Turner filed on April 2, so we won’t see official fundraising numbers for her until after June 30, the end of the second quarter.
So look for numbers from Ivey, Pena-Melnyk and Brown this week. Astute readers of this fine establishment already know that Ivey raised $117,000, and the knowledge now that he did that in one week makes it that much more impressive.
We’re still waiting on Pena-Melnyk and Brown to report their fundraising totals, but if their Act Blue pages are any indication of their overall level of prowess, Ivey has left them both in the dust. Brown has raised $5,310 on 26 Act Blue contributions, an average of $204 per donation. Pena-Melnyk has raised $4,480 on 27 contributions, an average of $166 per donation.
No FEC filings have been made on behalf of Derrick Leon Davis, Anthony Muse, Kris Valderrama, Geraldine Valentino-Smith, Michael Vaughn, or Jay Walker. As in CD8, it is only fair to note that five of the above six are delegates or senators currently in session in Annapolis. Sine die is tomorrow, so if these folks are serious, we should see some activity in this regard in the coming weeks.
But if we’re scoring this as a boxing match, barring some highly unlikely set of fundraising numbers from Anthony Brown or Joseline Pena-Melnyk, the first round clearly goes to Glenn Ivey.
Multimedia Scramble!!
If your dream is to hear my scrambled ramblings straight from the horse’s assmouth, then consider your reveries fulfilled (although you really should see somebody about this!). Last night, I was on the PGCBlog radio show, along with political analyst (and friend of the Scramble) Neal Carter and Gazette reporter Holden Wilen, discussing the CD4 race. The host is Cheryl “Ceemac” Ingraham.
I don’t come in until a little bit after the 30 minute mark, but the whole conversation is enlightening and entertaining. For those who know me, this is not news, but for the rest of you, news bulletin: I like to talk. A lot. As in, all the time. By my standards, I was VERY restrained tonight. We’ll see what happens if I get some other chances to do this. I’ll do my best to call ’em like I see ’em, and to occasionally shut the hell up and let someone else talk.
Really and truly, not just a line here, but damn, that was FUN.
End of the Month Summary
To think that a month ago, Maryland 2016 was going to be a sleepy little remote outpost. Hillary Clinton or another Democrat would win the state’s 10 electoral votes, Barbara Mikulski was going to be reelected for another term, and everyone would be focused on reclaiming the governor’s seat in 2018.
Well. Wherever we are now, it ain’t that place. It being the end of the month, here’s a summary post of every race that Barbara Mikulski’s March 2 retirement announcement has spawned. Not to mention the very existence of this humble and nefarious nest of rumors and whispers. Thank you, Senator Barb.
If a candidate has declared themselves not running, I’m not going to keep listing that. I’m only listing the ones with “??” who have been identified as interested and haven’t said no. I’m also leaving out CD3, CD6 and CD7 – for now – because the incumbents haven’t definitively declared for the Senate race yet.
The candidates are listed in alphabetical order in each race. No favoritism should be assumed or implied. Not valid in Indiana, Oklahoma, Alabama or where prohibited by law (didja catch the very topical LGBT references there? Y’all have to stay sharp to keep up with just how damn witty I am).
U.S. Senate
Elijah Cummings IN*
John Delaney ??
Donna Edwards IN
Heather Mizeur ??
Dutch Ruppersberger ??**
John Sarbanes ??
Chris Van Hollen IN
CD4
Anthony Brown IN
Glenn Ivey IN
Anthony Muse ??
Joseline Pena-Melnyk IN
Ingrid Turner IN (thanks, Mollie Byron, for pointing out my oversight)
Jay Walker ??
CD8
Kumar Barve IN
Valerie Ervin ??*
Nancy Floreen ??
Bill Frick ??***
Ariana Kelly ??
Kathleen Matthews ??
Jamie Raskin IN
Hans Riemer ??
* Both Cummings and Ervin are expected to declare their candidacies in the very near future.
** I don’t actually believe Ruppersberger is running. But certain national publications persist in listing him, so what the hell, right?
*** Bill Frick has been rumored to be considering both the CD6 race and more recently, the CD8 contest.
So 2021 candidates, 3 races. The prospect of a bunch more if CD1, CD2, CD3, CD6 and CD7 all open up (yes, I hate the Oxford comma. Sue me). All of the candidates thus far – other than Kathleen Matthews – are either present or former officeholders. If they all run, the reverberations of this earthquake will be felt for an entire generation – the last time something like this happened was 1986. How long ago was that? I was 23 years old, a year out of college and still had some hair on my head. Yeah, that long ago.
392 days until the primary. This is gonna be one crazy, insane and AWESOME ride. Hang with me and let’s have some fun.
Maryland Scramble 