Wall Street In A “Panic”

If there’s one thing that Politico does well, it’s to reflect accurately on the state of mind of political and business elites and insiders. Today it’s Wall Street and how they feel about Donald Trump.

Hoo boy is it hilarious. You can pretty much hear the sphincters tightening and smell the shit running down the well-dressed legs of various unnamed Masters of the Universe.

NEW YORK — Wall Street is growing increasingly terrified that Donald Trump — once viewed as an amusing summertime distraction — could actually win the Republican nomination for president.

The real estate billionaire, who took another populist shot on Sunday by ripping into lavish executive pay, continues to rise in the polls. Would-be Wall Street saviors like Jeb Bush are languishing in single digits. The belief that Trump’s candidacy would quickly fade is now evaporating in a wave of fear.

My particular favorite of the quotes is the CEO who says that Donald Trump supporters are a “huge mystery group.” The next time somebody trots out the bullshit Pauline Kael quote about not knowing anyone who voted for Nixon in 1972, offer them this one instead. And I can’t believe this is the first time I’ve linked to James Wolcott! right behind Charles Pierce on my political Mount Rushmore. For some reason I’m drawn to old curmudgeonly guys. Go figure, right? I mean, what are the odds?

The CEO of one large Wall Street firm, who declined to be identified by name criticizing the GOP front-runner, said the assumption in the financial industry remains that something will eventually knock Trump off and send voters toward a more establishment candidate. But that assumption is no longer held with strong conviction. And a dozen Wall Street executives interviewed for this article could not say what might dent Trump’s appeal or when it might happen.

“I don’t know anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. I don’t know anyone who knows anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. They are like this huge mystery group,” the CEO said. “So it’s a combination of shock and bewilderment. No one really knows why this is happening. But my own belief is that the laws of gravity will apply and those who are prepared to run the marathon will benefit when Trump drops out at mile 22. Right now people think Trump is pretty hilarious but the longer it goes on the more frightening it gets.”

And for dessert, let’s relish the idea that Politico quotes a Wall Street honcho – by name, no less – discussing with no apparent irony the notion that John Kasich could save the day for all those poor, beleaguered Wall Streeters:

One person who might benefit from Trump’s rise and Bush’s current stagnation is Kasich, who worked for seven years at Lehman Brothers — though in an Ohio office — and is viewed as something of an establishment-populist hybrid given his folksy demeanor and heartland background.

“Kasich is a true businessman in contrast to Trump. He is the businessman candidate and he’s pretty compelling in part because Jeb has taken such a beating,” said [Kathryn] Wylde [head of the New York City Partnership]. “I’ve set up a meet-and-greet with Governor Kasich and I’ve already got a sellout crowd.”

The guy was at LEHMAN BROTHERS. The first investment bank to go under in 2008. Kasich worked at Lehman from 2001 until the end, earning just under $615,000 in 2008. I got all this from freaking Wikipedia. Imagine what a competent oppo outfit could do in, say, a couple of hours?

These Wall Street guys are so cute. And stupid. And rich. The last two shouldn’t go together but alas they often do. 

Classic Politico Analysis

A truly hilarious “analysis” article today from Politico about what Republican “insiders” think about Donald Trump’s prospects. While the headline is that Trump has “peaked,” the article itself says no such thing. 

About three quarters of Republican early-state insiders say they believe Donald Trump has peaked — but many acknowledge that may also be wishful thinking.

That’s the assessment from this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our weekly bipartisan survey of the top operatives, strategists and activists in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The controversial real estate mogul and GOP presidential candidate provoked some caucus insiders into offering expletives and other colorful language when asked whether Trump has hit his ceiling.

“Who let that ruffian into the house?”

“Has somebody checked on the candlesticks? Are they all there? How about the china?”

“Oh my God I think I might just faint.”

Not really. But this is close.

“I hope and pray that he has peaked,” added another Granite State Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely. “The GOP has a chance in 2016 and it diminishes each time Trump increases his poll numbers.”

Hahahahahahahaha. And ha again, just for good measure.

And there’s more fun stuff in the article. The quadrennial pumping up of the guy who has no shot but but is liked by the establishment has begun. Apparently, the conventional wisdom is that Jeb Bush better watch out for Ohio Governor Jon Huntsman. Oops, I mean John Kasich. Sorry. I get them confused, because neither one has any chance of accomplishing anything other than in the fever dreams of the respectable bipartisan establishment of conventional wisdom that is the “POLITICO Caucus.” Get a load of some of the fantasy land nonsense being spouted here.

Half of Iowa Republicans and 54 percent of New Hampshire Republicans say Bush has the most to lose from Kasich — and 60 percent of Democrats agree.

Both Kasich and Bush are fighting over the ‘reform-minded governor’ niche,” said one Granite State Republican. “Moreover, Kasich has an ability to eat away at Bush’s advantage among independents who would vote in … New Hampshire’s open Republican primary.”

“He’s Jeb Bush by a different last name,” added an Iowa Republican. “And that is important to people who are worried about nominating another Bush.”

In New Hampshire, where both Kasich and Christie are also seeking to court the center-right vote, several caucus participants noted that the Garden State governor was also vulnerable to losing some support to the Ohio executive.

“He moves exactly into their air space,” said a New Hampshire Republican who thinks Kasich could pull from both Bush and Christie, if he can keep his notoriously short temper in check. “He does town halls as well as Christie and has a record of getting things done that exceeds Bush. I guarantee that every voter who is considering Bush/Christie will now also look at Kasich.”

“Blunt-talking governors who have a successful record full of left leaning policy baggage draw from the same side of the pond,” argued another.

I guess John Kasich is a “liberal” because he took the free ACA money and because he even professes to care about poor people. Only in the “POLITICO Caucus” does that make someone a liberal.

Personally, I agree with this guy.

But some caucus participants — particularly those in Iowa — were skeptical that Kasich would gain enough traction to pull votes from anyone.

“Nobody is talking about Kasich,” said one Hawkeye State Republican.

He will get lots of press, he will be talked about a lot on the teevee, and eventually it will amount to nothing. That’s the state of play in your modern Republican Party, when the successful GOP governor of Ohio can’t even get a sniff from the denizens of the swamp who vote in primaries.

All in all a very entertaining and enjoyable read. If you want to know what’s not going to happen, this article – and Politico in general – is for you.